What's AgEagle? submitted by pachocabrera to trakstocks [link] [comments] AgEagle is engaged in creating drones for commercial use. Founded in 2010, AgEagle is one of the nation’s leading commercial drone technology, services and solutions provider. Focused on delivering the metrics, tools and strategies necessary to define and implement drone-enabled solutions that solve important problems and provide new perspective on achieving critical objectives. Keep in mind this is not only a manufacturing company for drones: it's also into the leasing, testing, delivery, and agriculture business. https://ageagle.com/drone-solutions/ I suggest you check their official website for more information. proprietary drones 'Increasing demand for faster delivery in the transport and logistics industry is fueling capital investments in drone delivery initiatives across several sectors, including delivery of consumer packages, food, healthcare supplies and heavy cargo, among other payloads. Since 2019, AgEagle has been actively engaged in the custom manufacturing and assembly of drones used for the testing and refining of a world leading ecommerce company’s commercial drone small package delivery vehicles, systems and operations. As a result, we are uniquely positioned to collaborate with other organizations seeking to activate and accelerate adoption of end-to-end drone delivery solutions to drive new and differentiated value creation in their business-to-business or business-to-consumer operations. https://preview.redd.it/75qsl1oeaue61.png?width=2498&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f785c7de9c2878e618e639a0ba47f81d7e81be5 I will try to keep it short, but there are many points that need to be discussed about this company, since I think it's very well positioned to be a leader in this sector. Let me explain why: The global commercial drone market size is anticipated to reach USD 129.23 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 56.5% over the forecast period, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The market is characterized by the growing application scope spanning a wide range of sectors such as construction, photography, real estate, and agriculture.With their capability to reach places that humans and other machines cannot, and their onboard computer controlled cameras, commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) hold enormous potential to help farmers to monitor crops, law enforcement authorities to sharpen surveillance activities, and to support insurance agents in accessing damaged assets. Drone hardware has also become more affordable to produce and purchase over the years. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/commercial-drone-market https://preview.redd.it/hz2ycwzyaue61.png?width=1679&format=png&auto=webp&s=839ce0b91aafad7c37b17d8860230947e1a26ea1 Why did I highlight this ? Because AgEagle is currently the best company offering such service for agriculture demand. 'Since our founding in 2010, AgEagle has earned distinction as one of the Agriculture industry’s leading pioneers of technologically advanced drones and aerial imagery-based data collection and analytics solutions for the precision and sustainable farming markets. We are trusted to help the world’s growers proactively assess and manage the health of commercial crops, reduce the chemicals in produced foods and products and preserve and protect natural resources. https://ageagle.com/agriculture/ Through the introduction of our solution, HempOverview, AgEagle represents the first agriculture technology company to bring to market an advanced Agtech solution that is designed to meet the unique complexities of the emerging American hemp industry and the needs and demands of its key stakeholders. https://preview.redd.it/tmho66plbue61.png?width=2471&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1a588d8c4d23ff2fa0563068850b09a26ec6768 https://ageagle.com/agriculture/hemp-overview/ Our innovative HempOverview platform elegantly marries the simplicity of a web-based data collection and management app with the power of map-based aerial imaging technology. State administrators and growers are now able to connect, share, maintain proactive communications and collaborate on developing best practices for hemp cultivation registration, compliance and enforcement. Benefits include lower program management costs, new revenue channel development, real- or near real-time remote oversight of hemp fields, and much more .https://ageagle.com/cashing-in-on-the-budding-u-s-hemp-growing-market/ https://preview.redd.it/xysumvzzbue61.png?width=2491&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac13eaf1b1124f8980c18610d4a718242eb1b15f https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/22/1973839/0/en/The-global-industrial-hemp-market-size-is-projected-to-grow-from-USD-4-6-billion-in-2019-to-USD-26-6-billion-by-2025-recording-a-compound-annual-growth-rate-CAGR-of-34-0.html https://preview.redd.it/shz4cq7kcue61.png?width=2268&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a84b4d07a3d065e35d10aa0a26ade9a4e09170 “After having largely managed registration, oversight and reporting of the 2020 hemp planting season manually, we recognized that we needed to adopt a more advanced technological solution to better streamline our registration and oversight processes moving forward. To that end, we believe that the HempOverview platform best serves the needs of the state and our farmers. We are very excited for the 2021 season.” https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-announces-state-of-iowa-chooses-hempoverview-for-managing-registration-and-oversight-of-hemp-crops/ There are several articles about different states that intend to use AgEagle HempOverview, since they currently offer the best service in this market. What should we be excited about? Well, AgEagle recently made two, in my opinion, BIG moves towards leadership in this sector and I will briefly explain why it should make you excited about it. First, they partnered with Valqari : Valqari has created the only universal, standardized, safe and secure drone landing station that protects people, property and packages. The seven and a half-feet high Drone Delivery Station offers a convenient landing station with six separate storage units to accommodate multiple drone and traditional postal deliveries or pickups. The station also maintains a digital chain of custody throughout the entire delivery process to give users peace of mind knowing their packages are secure until retrieved. This entirely automated process provides communication technology that authenticates and verifies every delivery while also eliminating any potential interference that may occur during the final stage of drone delivery. https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-partners-with-valqari-to-manufacture-drone-delivery-stations/ Second, they acquired MicaSense: MicaSense has been at the forefront of advanced drone sensor development since its founding in 2014, having formed integration partnerships with several leading fixed wing and multicopter drone manufacturers, including DraganFly™, senseFly™, Quantum-Systems and Wingtra, among others. MicaSense’s patented, high precision thermal and multispectral sensors serve the aerial mapping and analytics needs of the agriculture market, and are well positioned to address applications in advanced inspection in the energy and insurance sectors and autonomous flight safety for package delivery, among other solutions. MicaSense’s high performance proprietary products, including Altum™, RedEdge-MX™, RedEdge-MX Blue™ and Atlas Flight™, have global distribution in 70 countries. https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-announces-acquisition-of-micasense-for-23-million/ AgEagle’s Chief Executive Officer J. Michael Drozd stated, “Joining forces with MicaSense will empower AgEagle to drive true innovation and advancements of commercial drone systems and solutions for a number of high growth industry segments." Leadership is really solid. What caught my eye was Matt Martin, the Vice President of Operations. https://ageagle.com/leaders/matt-martin/ 'Matt brings AgEagle over 30+ years of manufacturing experience in the aerospace industry, with emphasis on program engineering leadership and concentration on commercial and military aircraft, large scale system integration and quality systems controls, and compliance with complex regulatory requirements. Prior to AgEagle, he served as Vice President of Airbus Programs at Spirit AeroSystems, where he orchestrated the vision of Airbus Programs worldwide. He was originally recruited to Spirit AeroSystems in 2013 as Director of Product Design Engineering before being promoted to Program Director of the A350-900 Section 15 program. In this capacity, he was a key leader in the program’s final certification, entry into service and successful turnarounds in delivery, quality and financial performance. Prior to Spirit AeroSystems, Matt served as Vice President at Hawker Beechcraft Defense Company, where he spearheaded the execution of the Joint Primary Aircraft Training Systems contract for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy with an overall value of approximately $1+ billion. Earlier in his career, Martin rose through the ranks at Boeing, holding senior leadership roles on key programs, including the International Space Station Program, 767 TankeTransport Program and the Air Force One Maintenance, Modifications and Upgrades Program. Matt is the proud recipient of the Silver Snoopy, a prestigious award bestowed by NASA on individuals who have significantly contributed to the human space flight program to ensure flight safety and mission success. I don't want to sound boring so I'm leaving a link for everything, so you can check yourself and go more in depth on the subject. If you check Ark Big Ideas for 2021 https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK–Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf you'll see what the future is expecting from the Drone Business. https://preview.redd.it/myoutgx9gue61.png?width=2493&format=png&auto=webp&s=60eb3f4dbc98ef43a7be2c8c96e46b8ff4cd4689 https://preview.redd.it/5em4ln5cgue61.png?width=2493&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccd717dd57b5a1fb6fc90416975751b7ed95e7bf ARK believes that in the not-too-distant future drones will deliver our packages, food, and even people quicker and more conveniently than ever before. Drones are likely to transform shopping behavior, reduce travel time, and save lives. https://www.urbanairmobilitynews.com/market-analysis/drones-and-evtols-part-of-new-ark-invest-arkx-space-exploration-fund/ “Orbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the orbital space, including satellites and launch vehicles. Suborbital Aerospace Companies are companies that launch, make, service, or operate platforms in the suborbital space, including drones, air taxis and electric aviation vehicles.” I left this E-Commerce and Delivery slides last on purpose . Remember Micasense? The company acquired by AgEagle for 23m? Well, this is just speculation, but ex Micasense CEO Gabriel Torres is currently working for Amazon as a Technical Program Manager for Amazon Air . https://twitter.com/DaTrade33/status/1354567365988556803?s=20 I know people in the past said this partnership was never going to happen, but this acquisition is different and it happened just 5 days ago. more connections: https://twitter.com/DaTrade33/status/1356066923742523393?s=20 shoutout to DaTrade33 for the insight. If you like to speculate, feel free to research more. AgEagle institutional ownership: https://fintel.io/so/us/uavs https://twitter.com/StocksPokestatus/1354096324468084737?s=20 shout out to @stockspoker for this key insight https://preview.redd.it/empx1y5okue61.png?width=1107&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0aeab5afb9bd8c9c0f2ffc537de1d8c7b57bcfe Latest third quarter results: https://ageagle.com/ageagle-aerial-systems-reports-record-third-quarter-2020-financial-results/
🚨 Keep in mind this is just speculation, I'm just trying to connect the dots. I try my best as always to bring useful informations out, I invite you to do your own research and be aware of all the risks. Huge upside, huge downside. YOU ARE THE BEST JUDGE ON YOUR NEXT MOVE . Don't let me or other posters influence your decisions. I'd like to hear your thoughts, let me know also about the negative aspects related to this stock since I'm keen to learn more everyday. Thanks. 🚨 Pacho Out |
The aim of this article is to sum up all the relevant DueDiligence of the company in one single article. After discussing the value of each drug in the pipeline and giving them the fair value they deserve, we come to the conclusion that BCRX should currently be valued at $184.77. If you are looking for some extensive and detailed DD on the company, i think this is the article you look for, and I highly suggest you keep reading it. In case you find the given information useful, i encourage you to support the article in order to reach more people and rise awareness of how undervalued BCRX is. submitted by PitBullTrades to WallStreetbetsELITE [link] [comments] If you want to dig deeper, check out u/bio9999 and the community BCRX, some of the informartion related with Galidesivir directly come from bio9999's posts.
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What makes Jon Stonehouse a unique CEO is the dedication he has towards patients through his commitment to working faster in order to bring life-saving rare disease therapeutics to patient populations around the world. His passion is further substantiated by the note he had pasted on his monitor during the 2021 JPM Healthcare Conference https://preview.redd.it/9f8th8iji1g61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb8376b619942b56af61eec34bde9262ecdcc19c
https://preview.redd.it/wf23vakki1g61.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fc25facdf792148c474d72a1e923318456e326c What should catch investors attention is Alex Denner, head of Sarissa Capital Management recently increasing his stake in the company, managing to own 5% of it. He is one of the most well known biotech investors in the industry. He is the largest inside shareholder of Biogen pharma, ticker BIIB, and notorious for not only finding incredibly deep value in preclinical companies, but for being an "active" vs passive role in their success. After taking large positions in his value finds, he becomes an advocate for high level decisions from management that unlock shareholder value. He speaks up against possible bad M&A deals and has been known to bring two companies together to facilitate other deals.
○ Orladeyo ™ (berotralstat) oral pill Orladeyo is the first Oral approved treatment used to prevent swelling attacks in people with hereditary angioedema (HAE), disease which is estimated to affect 1 in 50,000 people. Berotralstat is currently approved in two countries, on December the 3rd it got approved by the FDA in USA, and on January the 22nd in Japan. The company expects approval of Orladeyo in Europe to happen early Q2. Before oral Orladeyo was approved for HAE, patients would only have treatments that required usage of needles. This dramatically reduced the quality of their life, making some of them quit using the treatment. That's the main reason why Orladeyo is a game changer. After the approval, surveys on patients were done, showing a large number of new patients that were not treated before due to needles, now willing to be treated taking oral form Orladeyo pills. https://preview.redd.it/iuh6qnrli1g61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5228ca462d8e56709a8b5ddde1a5c0c6c10b4d71 As it's shown in the page 13th of the January 2021 Corporate Presentation (page 13), in their recently undergone survey, 59% of the patients expressed high willingness to use Orladeyo, and that number rised to 71% with Physician recommendation. https://preview.redd.it/m7fffvomi1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=1facd08901d25f90de1a74b7e966d9503a748859 Additional surveys were undergone on patients using treatments from the competence "Cynrize, Haegarda, Takhzyro" and the results were the following ones (page 14). https://preview.redd.it/utqjd8lni1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb6c59ce6f26fce2301d9bf2b0a47fc1fc4164e0 Number of Patients USA In the USA there are 10,000 patients, 7500 diagnosed and treated, 1700 diagnosed but not treated, 600 treated but not diagnosed. Physicians expect to prescribe Orladeyo for over 41% of HAE patients. Conservatively thinking, taking 7,500 patients out of the total 10,000 pool in the USA, with over 41% of patients prescription ( page 16 ) we would conservatively aim for 3,075 patients. Japan On November the 5th Biocryst undergone an agreement with Torii Pharmaceuticals. A local Japanese company that will be in charge of getting new patients to be treated with Orladeyo in Japan and commerzialing it. After Orladeyo received the approval in Japan, Goichi Matsuda, president of Torii said the following words "Until now, HAE patients in Japan had no therapies approved to prevent attacks, so the approval of Orladeyo marks a significant advance in HAE treatment", "We are pleased to have the opportunity to bring the first oral treatment option to Japanese HAE patients and are actively preparing for the commercialization". Japan has 2,500 HAE patients, and Biocryst conservatively expects to at least reach 500 patients this year. Europe It's estimated to be around 12,000 HAE patients in Europe. Following the physician prescription of over 41% of patients to prescribe (page 16) for Orladeyo. We get a total of 4,920 patients in Europe Pricings/Revenue Each patient will have to pay 485K/year to access the drug in USA. In Japan and Europe the pricing system changes since pricing and jurisdictions work in a different way there. Making it 200K/year. With this yearly prices and the amount of patients defined before, we get the following results. 3,075 x 485K = 1,491,375,000$ 500 x 200K = 100,000,000$ 4,920 x 200K = 984,000,000$ Summing it all up we get 2,575,375,000$. From that number we have to subtract 74,625,000$ making it a total of 2,500,750,000$. The sustraction happens as a result of the undergone Royalty agreements with Torii Pharmaceuticals and Royalty Pharma. In the following link, you will have access to a google sheet, where yearly revenues generated by Orladeyo is estimated. A wide range of multipliers regarding the total patient pool that Orladeyo could capture is added, ranging from ( 10%, 20%, 41% and 75%).Revenues have been estimated with the actual price of Orladeyo in 2021 485K/year, it also has an estimation looking forward to 2025, on how the price of the drug will rise due to inflation. Finally there is a chart that gives an idea of what the the market cap could reach to be using revenue multipliers. Orladeyo value Having in mind the discussed numbers before, Orladeyo alone will be generating 2,500,750,000$ a year, using the average mid-cap Biotech company multiplier x7. We get a total of 17,505,250,000$, meaning an increase of 99.40$ in the stock price. https://preview.redd.it/rk2jrdpoi1g61.png?width=1403&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ebca8ee2255345dbf8cf4f02f092746398f66b Orladeyo value: 99.40$ SP ○ Peramivir ™ (Rapivab) Peramivir (Rapivab) is an antiviral drug for the treatment of influenza. Peramivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, acting as a transition-state analogue inhibitor of influenza neuraminidase and thereby preventing new viruses from emerging from infected cells. It is approved for intravenous administration. On 19 December 2014, the FDA approved Peramivir to treat influenza infection in adults. Peramivir has also been approved in Japan and South Korea and is available in Japan as Rapiacta and in South Korea as Peramiflu. The U.S. government (department of Health and Human Services) gave BioCryst Pharmaceuticals more than $77 million to finish the Phase III clinical development of peramivir. In 2009 the department of Health and Human Services had already given about $180 million to the program. In 2013 the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/HHS) released new funding under the current $234.8 million contract to enable completion of a New Drug Application filing for intravenous (IV) peramivir. Rapivab is a bio-defense drug that is often stockpiled by the government. Last time being September the 26th, with a purchase of $14 million. Peramivir value With all the explanations given above and having in mind Peramivir is a government bio-defense drug the value of Rapivab can not be less than $750,000,000 conservatively speaking. https://preview.redd.it/g3xkfbjpi1g61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=677f4881c4c1ec1b223a393356d826ef994cd59d
○ Galidesivir - BCX4430 The NIAID and BARDA have been funding the development and testing of Galidesivir for over 15 years as they recognize its importance in preparation for all future pandemics. Recently, the 31st of August, 2020 NIAID Awarded $44 Million Contract to Advance Development of Galidesivir. Besides COVID-19, the world suffers from 200 million infections per year from filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), flaviviruses (Hepatitis C, West Nile, Dengue, Jap Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, TBEV, OHFV, and Zika), arenaviruses, bunyaviruses, orthomyxoviruses, picornaviruses and paramyxoviruses (think RSV). Galidesivir is the first antiviral that has ever shown such potential, and to top it off, it is now known from the Phase I trial and now the Brazil part 1 trial to clearly be safe and show dose-sensitive effects in people. And based on multiple animal studies, it works equally effectively as a pill that is stable for years at room temperature. Not only that, but this antiviral, unlike any of the others, has excellent penetration of the blood brain barrier as was seen in the macaque Zika virus study. Efficacy Phase I safety trials in humans had shown that it was safe and well tolerated .NIAID on April 9th 2020 its expansion of the Brazilian yellow fever trial to include three cohorts of 8 severely affected COVID-19 patients, each being given a different IV dose regimen . Unfortunately, but obvious in hindsight, this trial was from the beginning underpowered to determine a clinical benefit. The patients were followed for eight weeks after their treatments. The company on December 22nd announced that all three doses were perfectly safe for the patients. In addition, they found that patients had a dose-sensitive reduction in virus levels in their lungs. They went on to say that an animal model, which will likely be published shortly, showed that Galidesivir significantly reduced COVID-19-associated lung damage. Despite all this and even though the trial was not even powered to detect a clinical difference in the patients, the NIAID, after finding an insignificant difference in outcomes between the small numbers of drug-treated and placebo-treated patients, inexplicably decided to discontinue clinical trials of it for COVID-19, to the great confused dismay of investors and perhaps even taken advantage of by short hedge funds who brought the stock down in late December. Bear in mind that during this trial, one of the most lethal strains of COVID-19 we know of was affecting the Brazilian trial sites, later known now as the P.1 or Manaus strain, and could have easily negatively affected the clinical outcomes of this small trial too given that the trial was focused on very sick patients more likely to carry this bad strain. Galidesivir value First of all, we must have in mind that Galidesivir is a Government funded bio-defense drug, that aims to treat a wide range of viruses as explained before. Its global stockpiling for future pandemics is also an absolute certainty given its long-term stability. With all the explanations being given, conservatively talking Galidesivir can not be worth less than $2.5B, this is 14.20$. https://preview.redd.it/la3l2rcqi1g61.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ad9c62790d7480afff31cfc35c4731ec86e078
○ FOP - BCX9250 FOP is an ultra-rare, severely disabling condition characterized by the irregular formation of bone outside the normal skeleton, also known as heterotopic ossification (HO). HO can occur in muscles, tendons and soft tissue. Patients with FOP become bound by this irregular ossification over time, with restricted movement and fused joints, resulting in deformities and premature mortality. There are currently no approved treatments for FOP. There are an estimated 3,500 to 9,000 patients worldwide, with 900 diagnosed so far. Currently there aren’t any approved treatments. Market size for this treatment is estimated to reach 500M-900M in 2025, growing to 3B in 2028 as more patients are diagnosed. With a price ranging from $900K-$1M/year. Last December the 21st Biocryst announced positive Phase 1 results “BCX9250 was safe and well tolerated at all doses studied, with linear and dose-proportional exposure supporting once-daily dosing.”. “In preclinical studies, BCX9250 demonstrated potency for the target kinase, selectivity, safety and strong suppression of HO in animal models.” BCX9250 Value BCX9250 study will most likely take 4 years to finish, this is, until 2025. By then the potential market we will be aimming for, will be $750,000,000 aprox. Drugs that are in Phase 1 studies are said to have a 10% chance of making it to the market. Following that, BCX9250 as of now shuld be valued at $75,000,000 = 0.426$ https://preview.redd.it/xv4s7d8ri1g61.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=63c2574e418ec445ceb92946478057c04b034d17
○ Oral Factor D inhibitor - BCX9930 BCX9930 is a novel, oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of Factor D currently in Phase 1 clinical development for the treatment of complement-mediated diseases. The 3rd of August 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Fast Track designation for oral Factor D inhibitor, BCX9930. Staff excitement Staff team from Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc seem to be really positive and excited about the incoming future of BCX9930. Such excitement has been seen in the last conference calls where staff members such as the CEO Jon P.Stonehouse, or the Vice President, William P.Sheridan would say the following words. “Embarrassment of riches”. “We agree with Alexion that creating a potent specific and great oral Factor D inhibitor is a great challenge, and we are happy we have one” , “My only concern is i have no concerns”, “Pipeline in a molecule”, “My aim is to make c5 inhibitors obsolete”, “This is Big”. Efficacy level The key for efficacy with this kind of treatment is improving the number of Hb Hemoglobin levels. BCX9930 showed 3.8g/dL improvement ( page 31 ). The competence, Novartis showed 2.87g/dL improvement and Alexion 2.4-2.6g/dL. https://preview.redd.it/5ow4oubsi1g61.png?width=1263&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef9f8339a593661c4741108fd09128ccfe0316e2 On December the 6th, 2020 BCX9930 data was released showing high potency and specificity for alternative pathway complement. “BCX9930 monotherapy has the potential to inhibit both intravascular and extravascular hemolysis”, “In the study, BCX9930 was highly specific for the alternative pathway and, after oral dosing of BCX9930 in primates, alternative pathway activity was completely suppressed.” “These data demonstrate that BCX9930 is a highly potent and specific orally bioavailable Factor D inhibitor with potential for treatment of patients with PNH and other alternative pathway mediated diseases,” said Dr. William Sheridan” Alternative Pathway What makes BCX9930 be a game changer, is the wide spectrum of Alternative Pathway Dysregulation disease it can treat. It can treat up to 8 diseases (page 26) as of now, that is why insiders call it “Pipeline in a molecule”. The diseases it treats are the following ones. https://preview.redd.it/hir48l0ti1g61.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=36a8ee0c49df7d8d5fc1ca9a2c928f756430a6ef PNH (Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria) aHUS (Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome) ANCA vasculitis (antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis) Lupus Nephritis IgAN vasculitis C3G (Glomerulonephritis) PMN (Primary membranous nephropathy) IgAN (IgA nephropathy) Potential market size by 2025 Assuming BCX9930 will be approved by 2025, and it will be able to treat those diseases, we reach the following conclusion. The potential market size BCX9930 will be aiming for by 2025 scores up to 44.53B/year. Being that number obtained summing up the following ones. “"PNH Treatment Market Size Worth $5.8 Billion by 2025" “"The global systemic lupus erythematosus market size is expected to reach USD 3.08 billion by 2025" “"aHUS, having in mind the disease prevalence (2 and 5.5)/MM, and the disease being treated with Soliris - 500,000$/ year. The worldwide market size should range between ( $7.5B and $20.5B)" We take 7.5B as conservative. “"Vasculitis treatment market size forecast to reach $743.2M by 2025" “"IgAN, having in mind the 1/3,707 incidence rate, and the yearly cost of the drug $12,456 we are aiming for a market size of $4,660,088,544" “"Having in mind C3G can be treated with Soliris and it costs $500,000 a year. Summing up all those 45,700 patients the market size we aim for is 22.85B" All this data can be more detailedly found in the following google sheet mentioned before. Alexion buy out On December the 12th, 2020 Alexion announced that AstraZeneca was going to buy them for 39B. More than 90% of their revenue comes from their “Factor D” C5 inhibitor, being that the main reason why AstraZeneca wanted that buy out to happen. You might think, why does this matter?. Well, remember we have a Factor D which has shown to be more effective than Alexion’s, and is able to treat more diseases than they do aswell. This buy out reflects how undervalued BCX9930 is. Apart from the buy out, i think it's essential to mention that Alexion bought Achillion's factor D when it was in ph 2 for $930MM. In 2019 Alexion's SOLIRIS® (eculizumab) net product sales were $3,946.4 million. Soliris is currently approved to treat PNH adn aHUS. Have in mind BCX9930 is able to treat 6 diseases more, aimming for a wider market size, and also having greater efficacy/safety. Using a biotech mid-cap x7 revenue multiplier 3,964B = 27,748B. meanning a SP value of $157.56 for BCRX. I want to make clear again that BCX9930 is said to be best in-class treatment and it's able to treat more diseases, this numbers could go much higher. Phase II study Despite the company not PR'ing the start of the phase II study of BCX9930, the official page of clinacal trials, show that the start of phase II study was December the 18th, 2020. This is extremely bullish since it reasures our thoughts that Ph I data readout will be good and enough to keep the study going. https://preview.redd.it/9nbz3y6ui1g61.png?width=1509&format=png&auto=webp&s=77833ece74cc7adfb5797de905b3db239b6ae214 BCX9930 valuation Having in mind BCX9930 is a potential best-in-class treatment, Alexion got bought out for 39B mainly for their “Factor D” c5 inhibitor and the yearly market size it aims for in 2025 rounds 44.53B. BCX9930 valuation can not be less than a 30% of Alexion’s buy out price, this is 11.7B meaning 66.44$. I want to make clear that once the drug is approved and generating revenue, the average x7 revenue can be used, making it much more valuable than it’s now. Do not forget data readout is due Q1. https://preview.redd.it/gw1389xui1g61.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a0071d67a1f1513b05c9a0055bc355d20643085
Since Denner opened his position in Alexion, it took him 5 months to close the buy out deal, as shown in the picture below https://preview.redd.it/bh8cf54xi1g61.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0f29d8baac51da14e88f333bd8271e43618ef81 After this exhaustive analysis on the company, we can easily acknowledge that BCRX is more than an strong BO candidate. A buy out coming from BIIB, company where Denner forms part of the BOD board of directors, would make total sense in the following 2 years once BCX9930 Factor D phase II data is unveiled.
This company could be the perfect example to have an idea of what we could expect from Biocryst's performance. From 2007 to 2014 Alexion's stock price grew a 1777%. Being valued at 10.5$ in 2007 and 186.6$ in 2014. Revenue generated by Alexion gradually grew up as their Factor D was approved to treat additional diseases, and the market size they captured got wider.
Biocryst Pharmaceuticals stock managing to do the SP move Alexion did, is more than doable with the unique pipeline it has. Having in mind Alexion made 66.4 MM revenue the first year while BCRX at least expects to generate 500 MM with Orladeyo, apart from it, additional revenue generated by Rapivab/Galidesivir stockpillings. Incoming Earning Reports are meant to be potential catalysts for the company, gradually becoming more meaningful as the market size they capture with Orladeyo becomes wider.
Jon Stonehouse CEO, also confirmed that the company will not need to do offerings anymore. The fact that the company is already generating revenue with Orladeyo is another strong evidence that confirms money risings will not be needed anymore.
Once the given information on the company is aknowledged, realizing how heavily the company has been manipulated by institutions, constantly making short pressure bigger in order to move the stock into ridiculous price levels, to be able to accumulate more shares at premium prices. Should not be of anyone's surprise, as this is a true "Embarrasment of Riches", like insiders call it, and they aim to load as much as thay can, at the very best premium prices. Total value: 184.77$ SP |
A health and safety risk will depend on a chance, either high or low, of any worker to be harmed by a particular hazard. A risk will mean anything that can cause harm to the worker in the working environment; such as chemicals, electrical, radioactivity, biological hazards, employee behavior, and other factors. Risk assessments are very important as they form an integral part of an occupational health and safety management plan. They help to: Create awareness of hazards and risk. Risk and safety is complex because we are dealing with humans. Humans, by design, are very complex and are averse to being told what to do. We are not motivated by this. We are not motivated by bullies who just want us to comply, like the lion. We are not motivated by pushing or shoving or bouncing for that matter. If we want to understand how people are motivated firstly we need to understand Often dictionaries do not give specific definitions or combine it with the term "risk". For example, one dictionary defines hazard as "a danger or risk" which helps explain why many people use the terms interchangeably. There are many definitions for hazard but the most common definition when talking about workplace health and safety is: A hazard is any source of potential damage, harm or Risk tolerance is defined as the willingness of a worker or a group to take safety risks. This article looks at the factors that influence how much risk is acceptable to individuals or groups. My research into risk tolerance has helped formulate training for management, supervisors and workers, on how to recognize and minimize risk tolerance. Safety Regulation System (SRS) Access to electronic lodgement of documents and data, including approvals, compliance, levy assessment, licensing and certification management. About Access Petroleum and Geothermal Information (WAPIMS) Petroleum exploration database containing non-confidential data on wells, geophysical survey titles and other related exploration and production data. Safety risk assessments are essential for protecting employees, businesses and complying with the law. Assessments promote employee awareness regarding workplace hazards, aide in identifying personnel at risk, determine existing control measures and thier adequacy, prevent illness and injuries, and prioritize hazards and their control measures. The risk management process has four stages: Identification - proactive identification, Incident reporting, safety inspections, risk audits, safe design and purchasing, consultation. Assessment - likelihood of the hazard and risk, degree of harm, frequency and duration of exposure, severity of the hazard or risk. Safety risk management is therefore a key component of the safety management process at both the State and product/service provider level. Safety risks are conceptually assessed as acceptable, tolerable, or intolerable. Risks assessed as initially falling in the intolerable region are unacceptable under any circumstances. The probability and/or severity of the consequences of the hazards are Safety risk definition: If something that you do is a risk , it might have unpleasant or undesirable results. | Meaning, pronunciation, translations and examples
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